THE CATEGORY BAN.
#0
The plate says European outlets may print a migrant overrepresentation in crime and may not print the same gap for a racial minority.
A migrant bar is marked publishable. A racial-minority bar is marked do not print.
SteelMan: Foreign-born status is a legal category many European statistics already use. Race is often not collected.
Cut: The plate treats the two bars as the same fact under two names. Foreign-born and race are not the same variable.
SWEDEN, THE OVERREPRESENTATION.
#1
The plate says Swedish statistics show foreign-background suspects overrepresented in violent crime.
A Brå-style chart has foreign background above native background.
SteelMan: Brå's 2007-2018 study found a higher risk of being registered as a suspected offender for people born abroad and for people born in Sweden to non-native parents, relative to people born in Sweden to two native-born parents.
Cut: The plate's bars are unlabeled. Brå reports suspected offenders, not convictions, and finds the highest excess risk for Swedish-born children of two non-native parents, much of it from age structure.
SWEDEN, AFTER AGE.
#2
The plate says the Swedish gap remains after an age control.
An age-adjusted pair of bars still differs.
SteelMan: Brå says a major part of the excess risk for Swedish-born children of two non-native parents is the age distribution, and that a gap remains.
Cut: The plate does not print Brå's adjusted ratio. 'Remains' is not a size.
SWEDEN, BY OFFENCE.
#3
The plate says the Swedish gap is larger for robbery and rape than for traffic offences.
Three offence bars, robbery and rape taller than traffic.
SteelMan: Brå breaks suspected offending into offence types and finds the pattern is not uniform.
Cut: The plate's offence order is not the Brå table. Drug offences moved differently from violent offences in that study.
FOREIGN-BORN AND THE CHILD.
#4
The plate says Swedish-born children of foreign-born parents are a third category, not foreign-born and not native.
Three bars: native, foreign-born, Swedish-born to foreign-born parents.
SteelMan: Brå uses those groups separately. The Swedish-born two-non-native-parent group had the highest relative risk of registration as a suspect.
Cut: The plate collapses that group into a migrant story. Brå's highest-risk group was born in Sweden.
FRANCE, THE PRISON SHARE.
#5
The plate says foreigners are a larger share of French prisoners than of the population.
A prison bar is marked about a quarter foreign. A population bar is marked under a tenth.
SteelMan: A compilation of Justice Ministry figures puts foreigners at about 24.5 percent of prisoners against about 8 percent of the population.
Cut: The opened page is a secondary compilation, not the ministry table. Foreign nationals include Europeans, and prison share is not an offending rate.
FRANCE, NORTH AFRICA.
#6
The plate says North African origin accounts for a disproportionate share of French violent-crime suspects.
A North Africa bar is taller than a population bar.
SteelMan: French police publish nationality of persons implicated for some offences. North African states appear above their population share in several of those tables.
Cut: The plate does not name the table or the year. Origin and nationality are not the same variable.
BRITAIN, THE BLACK RATE.
#7
The plate says Ministry of Justice tables show a higher black offending rate for violent crime.
A black rate bar is several times the white bar.
SteelMan: England and Wales publish arrests, convictions, and prison population by ethnicity. Black rates are higher for several violent categories.
Cut: The plate's multiple is not opened against a Ministry of Justice table here.
BRITAIN, STOP AND SEARCH.
#8
The plate says a higher stop-and-search rate is offered as the cause and does not account for the conviction gap.
A search bar is high. A conviction bar is also high.
SteelMan: Stop and search is disproportionate. A conviction gap is a later stage and is not produced by the stop alone.
Cut: The plate does not show the two rates. Search disparity and conviction disparity can both be real.
GERMANY, THE SUSPECT SHARE.
#9
The plate says non-German suspects are overrepresented in violent crime in BKA tables.
A non-German bar is above a population bar.
SteelMan: The BKA publishes suspect shares by nationality. Non-German suspects are above their population share for several violent offences.
Cut: The plate's bars are unlabeled. Suspect is not conviction, and nationality is not migration background.
GERMANY, THE 2015 COHORT.
#10
The plate says the post-2015 migrant cohort has a higher suspect rate than the earlier foreign population.
A 2015-plus bar is taller than an earlier foreign-born bar.
SteelMan: BKA has published separate suspect figures for immigrants and asylum applicants.
Cut: The plate does not cite the year or the offence. A cohort rate without age and sex is not comparable.
DENMARK, THE CONVICTION GAP.
#11
The plate says Danish conviction statistics show an overrepresentation for non-Western background.
A non-Western bar is above a Danish-origin bar.
SteelMan: Statistics Denmark publishes convictions by origin, and non-Western origin is above Danish origin for several offences.
Cut: The plate's gap is not opened against a Statistics Denmark table here.
THE NETHERLANDS, ANTILLEAN AND MOROCCAN.
#12
The plate says Dutch-Antillean and Moroccan-origin groups have higher suspect rates than native Dutch.
Two origin bars sit above a native bar.
SteelMan: Statistics Netherlands publishes suspect rates by migration background. Those two groups are above native Dutch in several editions.
Cut: The plate does not name the year. Second-generation rates are not the first-generation rates.
NORWAY, OSLO.
#13
The plate says Oslo police figures show a foreign-background overrepresentation in violent crime.
An Oslo bar is split, foreign background larger than its population share.
SteelMan: Oslo police have published suspect background for violent incidents.
Cut: The plate's split is unlabeled. Oslo is not Norway.
THE REPORTING RULE.
#14
The plate says a newsroom rule allows migrant crime and bars racial crime, so the same gap is printed under one name.
A style card permits migrant and bars race.
SteelMan: Many European outlets will name foreign status and will not name race, because race is not the official category.
Cut: The plate calls this one gap. The official category is foreign-born or nationality, which is why the migrant number exists and the race number often does not.
THE VICTIM SURVEY.
#15
The plate says victim surveys, not only police records, show the overrepresentation.
A victim names the offender's origin. A police file is a second stack.
SteelMan: A victim description is independent of an arrest classification. Some countries ask origin in crime surveys.
Cut: The plate does not name a survey. A victim's guess of origin is not a register.
WHAT IS COUNTED.
#16
The plate says the European count is foreign-born or nationality, and the American count is race, and the coverage treats only the second as unprintable.
Two ledgers, Europe by place of birth, America by race. One is marked publishable.
SteelMan: The variables differ. Comparing a foreign-born share to a race share is a category error unless the plate says so.
Cut: The plate's last line treats the two ledgers as the same fact. They are not.